Putin's Teddy Bear Military - A Cardboard Cutout

Who's afraid of the big bad bear?

President Putin has masterfully crafted a program to provoke the West into a hissy-fit about a former military superpower seeking to recapture its past Soviet era glories and domination through military adventures that challenge NATO and American might. During Russia's recent aggressive thrust close to and beyond the Near Abroad, Russia engaged in battles that were guaranteed public relations victories, not military ones notably: Crimea, eastern Ukraine and Syria. Each encounter had limited downside risk because Russia's military faced inferior, if any, opposition. Consider the following:

• Eastern Ukraine has a large ethnic Russian population and Ukrainian government forces in effect felt like it was fighting on foreign soil. Although Russia denied utilizing its ground troops in this campaign, they still had to be clever to minimize the burials of "little green men."
• Crimea was a lightning invasion of an island whose Russian population heartily welcomed them. Ironically it was a Pyrrhic victory because Russia now assumes Crimea's burdensome economic responsibilities.
• Syria is exclusively an air campaign (a cost savings on body bags), a reinforcement of long-established military installations and access to a deep-water port at the behest of longtime ally, the Syrian government. As a de facto intensive training exercise Russia has been able to test their new high-tech toys under battle conditions against an opposition that didn't have advanced weaponry to threaten them.

In each case Russia engaged their military where the West was not legally compelled nor threatened to intervene because neither Ukraine nor Crimea are NATO members and Syria is a Russian ally. Additionally each territory conquered had a sizeable Russian population. In the meantime Russia has continued their incursions over the tiny Baltic States and small nearby NATO countries.

Militarily thin Russia is like a former world-class prize fighter who gets himself back in decent shape though far from his peak fighting years. He then buys some cool-looking boxing trunks, gets a good promotional manager and proceeds to beat up drunken beer-bellied toughs in a local dive bar and avoids battle-hardened fighters. It's all a clever measured risk that maximizes Russia's image and minimizes their military's short-comings. Any significant Russian ground battlefield losses regardless if it's a skirmish would spell doom for Putin's strongman political image. The question is whether Putin push his military too far in future ventures.

Russia is a bully in its neighborhood casting a long and dark shadow over smaller nearby countries. To these small countries Russia is a big, hungry bear seeking easy morsels. Though it seems implausible that Putin will risk any military offensive maneuvers in Europe because of potential world condemnation and sanctions, Putin's thirst to gain respect may supersede better judgment.

On the other hand, election victories by European ultra-conservatives in 2017 in France, Germany and other countries may provide Putin a level of respect he desires and will cease his military threats. Nonetheless Putin is keeping his worst-case options open in case the European ultra-conservative parties fall short in the elections and decide change their pre-electoral rhetoric to engage with Russia with respect and as an equal. Taking the non-NATO small countries "hostage" militarily may provoke, in the eyes of the Russians an aggressive military NATO reaction, a confrontation Putin is guaranteed to lose badly.

So I ask again, "Who's afraid of the big bad bear?"

Copyright Indo-Brazilian Associates LLC 2016. All rights reserved.

Indo-Brazilian Associates LLC is a NYC-based global advisory service and think tank with connections at the highest levels specializing in international investment, political and security risk assessments. International business is increasingly complex featuring a highly mobile professional class in all corners of the globe. We provide you the tools to successfully negotiate cross-culturally in your global business endeavors. Tell us about your challenges. We'll get you on the "Short List".

We provide executive coaching, speaking engagements, speechwriting and workshops. Contact us at http://www.indobrazilian.com

Happy 241st Birthday to All United States Marines

On November 10, 1775, the United States Marine Corps was founded by the Second Continental Congress in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Fittingly, "Tun Tavern" was the place where history was made, with the first Marines enlisting under Commandant Samuel Nicholas.

Since that date, Marines have been in uninterrupted service to our nation and have distinguished themselves "in every clime and place," in far off lands and on distant, remote beaches "from the Halls of Montezuma to the Shores of Tripoli," in France during World War I at Belleau Wood, on Iwo Jima and throughout the Pacific Islands during World War II, at Inchon and the Chosin Reservoir during the Korea War, at Khe Sanh and Hue City during the Vietnam War, throughout Iraq in such outposts as Fallujah and the Anbar Province, and in bloody combat in the rugged mountains of Afghanistan--just a few of many places, a scant mention of the many battlefields where United States Marines have been called to duty.

Marines have heroically, without hesitation, answered our country's call, never faltering in their dedication nor swerving in their allegiance. "Semper Fidelis" (Always Faithful) is every Marine's motto, and "Once a Marine, Always a Marine" their creed.

The Marines' Hymn proclaims "... if the Army or the Navy ever look on heaven's scenes, they will find the streets are guarded by United States Marines."

Competently so.

To formalize the Marine Corps's founding, on November 1, 1921, Major General John A. Lejuene, Commandant of the Marine Corps at that time, issued MARINE CORPS ORDERS No. 47 (Series 1921), part of which read as follows:

In every battle and skirmish since the birth of our Corps, Marines have acquitted themselves with the greatest distinction, winning new honors on each occasion until the term "Marine" has come to signify all that is highest in military efficiency and soldierly virtue. This high name of distinction and soldierly repute we who are Marines today have received from those who preceded us in the Corps. With it we have also received from them the eternal spirit which has animated our Corps from generation to generation and has been the distinguishing mark of the Marines in every age.

In World War II, on one particular island in the Pacific Ocean, Iwo Jima, the iconic 1945 photograph of six Marines raising a United States flag atop Mount Suribachi during the battle was taken by Associated Press combat photographer Joe Rosenthal. That photo later became the most recognized symbol of the United States in the world, and is the basis for the Marine Corps War Memorial (Iwo Jima Memorial) a national monument in Arlington, Virginia. Admiral Chester Nimitz reflected on the incredible sacrifice of the Marines who fought at Iwo Jima by saying, (Among the men who fought on Iwo Jima) "Uncommon valor was a common virtue," words inscribed in the granite at the base.

As do all Marines--active duty, retired, or former, where ever they may find themselves today, November 10th--I pay silent tribute to those who went before me--and after--having given so much in service to their Corps and country. Now decades older, I clearly remember the faces of those with whom I served--then steadfast young men and women, unselfish in their devotion, unwavering in their loyalty, never questioning their solemn duty to defend our nation from all enemies, foreign and domestic.

Always displaying a Gung Ho attitude, Marines have stood ready to fight our country's battles "on the land, in the air, or at sea" for two hundred forty-one years wherever and whenever called upon to do so.

And so, on this special day, I will hoist a toast to all Marines, past and present, who have risked their lives for their country. I will pay special tribute to those Marines who have made the ultimate sacrifice. Their memory bolsters my faith in our nation's youth, our steadfast values, and our blessed United States of America.

Happy 241st Birthday, Marines!

Major Dennis Copson is a retired United States Marine and is a resident of Oceanside, California. He is a freelance writer and editor.

Veterans Day

Just by coincidence, my trip most recent trip with Uber included a conversation that got a little political. Per usual, the driver struck up a conversation asking standard questions:

Q: Did you grow up here?

A: No. I'm from San Diego. I moved here to go to school.

Q: Did you go to CU?

A: Yes. It is a beautiful campus. I met my husband there and we decided to stick around here in Colorado. He is from here, I can't imagine him moving.

Q: What did you study?

A: English and communication. (He laughed.)

Q: What do you do for a living?

A: I was an admin assistant for an oil and gas company but was laid off not too long ago when the industry took a hit.

I answered all these questions and more. When I told him the general area we were heading, his interest peaked. "You're over by the high school, huh? My son used to have wrestling matches there."

Now, whenever a driver opens up about their family, it is a perfect way to steer the conversation away from me. A lot of times I don't have much to say. I rather be the one asking questions and have them talk. I asked, "You have a son that wrestles that is cool."

"I have three boys. Triplets!" he replied proudly.

"Wow, you must have your hands full then," I said.

"Well, they are no longer at home. They enlisted in the army right after they graduated high school."

He talked a little further about his boys. They were all spread out over the country and were involved in different aspects of the armed forces. He laughed, "It's funny. One of my sons' can't even talk about what his work is about. I've learned it is not worth asking anymore." He continued on and then revealed that another one of his sons' served in Iraq.

When he had finished talking, I said, "That's great. I appreciate their service for our country."

He got a little more political as the drive went on, which was okay by me. It wasn't like we debated about anything, more like him expressing how proud he was to have family serving our country. One thing he did mention though, was some of the things his son experienced over in Iraq. Seeing others get hurt and unfortunately seeing others die.

"These service men and women. The things they see. They certainly don't come back the same way as when they had left to serve over there."

I was curious about some of the common neurological effects war has on our veterans. My thought being that brain injuries do occur, so some must have seizures or develop epilepsy because of that. Research conducted by the office of Veterans Affairs found many Veterans' seizures are tied to traumatic brain injury (TBI) and post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). The thought being that the increased anxiety and stress PTSD and TBI cause can trigger a seizure. To be clear, the study points out that this doesn't necessarily mean that these veterans will develop epilepsy.

"VA treated more than 87,000 Veterans with seizures diagnoses during fiscal year 2011. While a relatively small number of those, only 3,792, served in operation Enduring Freedom, Iraqi Freedom, or New Dawn, Veterans diagnosed with seizures from those conflicts were proportionately much more likely to also have TBI than their peers who have not had seizures. Previous research has pegged TBI and PTSD rates as high as 22 percent for Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans. The new study suggests that nearly 70 percent of Veterans with seizures also have TBI and PTSD." Research: Many Veterans' seizures tied to TBI and PTSD, not epilepsy, VA Office of Research and Development, January 15, 2014

I can sympathize with these veterans as stress and anxiety seem to be a trigger for my seizures. I know how frustrating and scary it is to have a seizure out of the blue. Once again, I can only hope and pray that one day there will be a cure for these complex neurological disorders. Thank you to all of those who have served our country. Your good deeds do not go unnoticed.

I think it is important to share that anyone can develop epilepsy. It is fourth most common neurological disorder that affects over 1 million Americans. A common trigger for seizures is stress. There are both positive and negative ways of dealing with stress. My hope is that not only our veterans but every American develops a proper way of managing their stress in order to steer clear of disorders, like epilepsy. Some ways I have found to help is exercise, meditation, and prayer. We all need to learn how to cope with it.

It is important that we keep a close watch on our Veterans that come home and develop PTSD. A seizure may be triggered from having PTSD which just adds to the list of health issues our Veterans face. By Danielle Watkins