Cities Sprawl Higher

Residents of the Western Hemisphere may not know it, but we are living in the age of the "megatall" skyscraper.

First came "supertall" towers, those topping 300 meters (984 feet). But as of a little more than a decade ago, construction began on the first megatall building, defined as one that stands 600 meters (1,969 feet) or more. The first megatall structure was Burj Khalifa in downtown Dubai. Since its completion in 2009, the Burj Khalifa has been the tallest artificial structure in the world.

But it will not hold on to that designation much longer.

Construction is already underway on the Jeddah Tower in Saudi Arabia. Also called the Kingdom Tower, the structure is planned to reach 3,281 feet upon completion, expected in 2020. The tower will house a hotel, offices and residential apartments, as well as a 157th-floor observation deck.

The Kingdom Tower will shoot past the Burj Khalifa and other existing megatall structures, including the 2,073-foot Shanghai Tower, Saudi Arabia's existing 1,971-foot Abraj Al-Bait and the 1,965-foot Ping An International Finance Centre in Shenzhen, China, mostly complete and slated to be finished next year. New York's supertall One World Trade Center, reaching a patriotic 1,776 feet, is the only building in the Western Hemisphere to make the current top 10 list, and it may soon find itself pushed out completely.

Even the Jeddah Tower may not have long to enjoy its place at the top. British-Iraqi architecture firm AMBS announced plans in late November for "The Bride of the Gulf," a proposed tower in Basra, Iraq, to reach 230 stories, or about 3,780 feet. While there is no definite site yet dedicated to the project, it is another indication of the appetite to push architecture ever upward.

Some tall and supertall skyscrapers are purely residential, especially in the United States. Advances in engineering and technology, as well as increased population pressure in urban areas, make living dozens of stories up a more appealing prospect than it once was. But among the megatall structures that are cropping up around the world, dedicating an entire tower to purely residential use is rare.

Instead, many of these megatall buildings include business and residential portions, along with hotels, restaurants and a variety of in-house amenities. In effect, they are the most prominent evidence that cities today are as apt to sprawl upward as outward. In size and in function, they are effectively several skyscrapers in one.

Mixed-use towers offer some economies of scale. The restaurant where workers grab lunch on Tuesday will happily serve brunch to residents and hotel guests on Sunday. The shops, gardens and health services offered to residents will, in effect, make the tower a relatively self-contained community. The climate control system will be able to draw cooler, cleaner air from the stories far above street level, saving on cooling and filtration costs. And infrastructure such as a water mains and electricity will obviously be consolidated.

For some residents, too, there might be individual savings. Office workers may rent apartments in the tower where they work, reducing their commute to an elevator ride. Visitors seeing friends or family will be able to stay in hotel rooms just a few floors away.

Much as ocean liners have sometimes been described as "floating cities," multiuse towers like the one underway in Jeddah may represent "climbing cities." As such, they will need redundancies and safeguards for power, sanitation and emergency services. Some of these will simply be a matter of planning ahead; others may require innovative solutions.

For example, how do you fight a fire on the 70th floor of a building? In Dubai, the proposal is to outfit firefighters with "jetpacks," powered by helicopter blades rather than streams of gas, but still intended to allow individual first responders to rescue stranded civilians. While New Yorkers should not expect to see the FDNY flying around One World Trade Center's upper levels any time soon, futuristic skyscrapers already demand unusual solutions to unique problems.

Modern design also allows these towers to be built with increasing efficiency of materials. Engineering techniques such as a weight-bearing "exoskeleton" on the outside of tall buildings and the availability of stronger steel and concrete mean that builders can execute architects' designs while keeping costs manageable and buildings safe for the people who will live, work and relax in them once they are complete.

In North America and Europe, land use and zoning rules often prevent mixed-use buildings like those gaining prominence elsewhere. Such structures are either banned outright or require zoning variances blocked by people who would may not be directly affected at all, but dislike the idea of such a project in their backyard on principle.

And by international standards, the United States is fairly adaptable where building permissions are concerned. It is harder to imagine supertall, mixed-use skyscrapers gaining a foothold in Berlin or Milan, let alone Paris, where the announcement of a 590-foot tall combination hotel and office building created hand-wringing and outcry just months ago.

In some ways, supertowers may offer what urban living advocates have championed for years. They reduce the need for cars and other transportation, allow communities to deploy resources more efficiently and offer improved amenities through economies of scale.

On the other hand, these towers stand in opposition to calls for "human scale" development. Some urban planners have argued that focusing too much on efficiency can lead to isolating and even dangerous results for individuals. To remain viable, mixed-use towers will probably need common spaces such as gardens, courtyards or gallerias, as well as the proposed restaurants and shops that will make life social, not simply efficient, for the people who live and work in such places.

While megatall skyscrapers pose a variety of challenges, more nations are tackling these problems all the time. Towers like the one rising in Jeddah are one vision of the future, and one that is arriving first in the global East.

For more articles, please visit the Palisades Hudson Financial Group LLC newsletter or subscribe to the blog.

Newsletter: http://www.palisadeshudson.com/insights/sentinel/

Blog: http://www.palisadeshudson.com/insights/current-commentary/

Russian and Iranian Misadventures in the Middle East

The Russian and Iranians are pouring in military resources into Syria with their version of "shock & awe" in a joint coalition to neutralize anti-Assad forces which have been armed by the Americans for several years. It's the 21st century version of the Cold War using proxies in global hotspots. Although many are lambasting the Obama administration for inaction in the Syrian campaign the US has learned the bitter lessons through multiple surges, the training of the Iraqi military and the furnishing of materiel with no positive results.

For years Iran has had a military presence in Syria furnishing the Assad regime with materiel and military advisors. Now it upgrades this support with combat troops which can operate more effectively because of Russian air power. This could establish a deeper Iranian (aka Shiite presence) in Iraq, making it almost a de facto region of Iran. Iraq would serve as a sort of offshore banking account because Iraq produces considerable oil (aka revenue producing) and serves as an insurance policy in case there are sanction snapbacks.

Russia uses their military as political cover by rescuing their long-time Syrian ally. Interestingly the Syrian regime has been steadily shrinking and on the brink of collapse for 4 years defended by an undermanned and dispirited military. Through these high-profile and audacious military operations, Russia probably intends to gain significant influence in the Middle East with respect to any future agreements.

Overseas military adventures are shockingly expensive and become a drain on the invading nation's treasury the longer these wars continue. Iran is counting on the west to lift sanctions and unfreeze their assets so that they can affordably finance their immediate ground support efforts. Russia, for the moment, is limiting their participation to an air campaign with operational support staff and a large security contingent. Yet servicing, maintaining and protecting high-end equipment in a war environment is expensive. Neither Russia nor Iran has the deep financial pockets to militarily assert their influence beyond the short-term.

It's a rarity that brief military campaigns neatly obtain their objectives. Historically they always last far longer and become far messier than anyone projected which drags the invading nation, politically and militarily, into a quagmire. Eventually they arrive at the inevitable crossroads when they either must choose between two regrettably unpalatable choices: double down or withdraw.

In the not too distant future, both Russia and Iran will pay a heavy political price domestically. I'm sure that neither the Iranian nor Russian citizenry is excited about these overseas adventures particularly when these respective countries' resources can be dedicated domestically in their weak economies. The result may be anti-war protests and possibly civil unrest that will alarm their leadership.

On the other hand you can be sure that privately the Obama administration and Pentagon brass are chortling about Russia's Middle East misadventure that will only weaken Putin. With far greater firepower, the US failed to win the peace in Iraq in over a decade. For this reason that is why Iran and Russia will fail miserably.

Copyright Indo-Brazilian Associates LLC 2015. All rights reserved.

Indo-Brazilian Associates LLC is a NYC-based global advisory service and think tank with connections at the highest levels specializing in international investment, political and security risk assessments. International business is increasingly complex featuring a highly mobile professional class in all corners of the globe. We provide you the tools to successfully negotiate cross-culturally in your global business endeavors. Tell us about your challenges. We'll get you on the "Short List".

Available for speaking engagements and workshops. Contact us at http://www.indobrazilian.com